Predicción del rendimiento académico en educación secundaria mediante el análisis de árboles de decisión
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https://doi.org/10.5944/educxx1.33351Palabras clave:
educación secundaria, rendimiento académico, predicción, nivel de actividad física, árbol de decisiónResumen
El objetivo del presente estudio fue desarrollar un modelo de predicción del rendimiento académico (éxito o fracaso escolar) mediante la aplicación de un análisis de árbol de decisión. Se realizó un estudio transversal para diseñar un sistema de detección temprana del fracaso escolar. Participaron 219 adolescentes (de 14 a 16 años) y se recabó información de su estatus socioeconómico, percentil de índice de masa corporal (IMC), actividad física, tiempo de ocio frente a pantallas, niveles de disfrute, esperanza, ira, ansiedad, aburrimiento, compromiso conductual, compromiso emocional, compromiso cognitivo, rendimiento escolar autopercibido e intención de ir a la universidad, como variables de entrada en el análisis del árbol de decisión. Se encontraron 6 grupos de fracaso y 3 de éxito capaces de predecir el rendimiento académico. Se obtuvo una buena precisión en los conjuntos de datos de entrenamiento (80.11 %) y validación (81.40 %) del árbol de decisión. Es posible predecir el fracaso o el éxito académico mediante la evaluación del estado de peso, la actividad física, la ira y la esperanza durante la asistencia a la escuela, la intención de ir a la universidad y el rendimiento escolar autopercibido.
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