Determinants of schooling trajectories in the transition from primary to secondary education

Abstract

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the factors affecting students' likelihood of success in the first year of compulsory secondary education. The research is based on the outcomes of a semi-structured survey on 366 students, and the subsequent performance of 277 of them, according to the school evaluation records, along the school year. Consistent with existing evidence, our findings confirm that for some students, 40%, the vertical transition does not constitute a significant problem. However, for those students that vertical transition represents a challenge, this event is likely to negatively affect their future school career. Within this group of students, 33% is in a vulnerable situation that requires an educational intervention able to accommodate to the specific characteristics and circumstances of the transition. This paper also contributes to the identification and understanding of determinants of dropout and school failure, and provides grounds for the design of educational programs to overcome them, such as educational guidance.