The relevance of the CERA vote: Can the CERA vote affect the outcome of the election?

Abstract

The general elections held on July 23, 2023, despite taking place in a context of electoral fatigue after the regional and municipal elections in May, have been a relevant milestone for many reasons, but especially for the scope of the Spanish vote abroad. The electoral results were very close, so much so that governance was left in the hands of seven votes in the investiture session. These circumstances have led to an interest on the relevance and value of the vote of Spaniards residing abroad, the so-called CERA vote. The days following the elections, politicians and citizens attended with expectation the counting of the CERA vote, as it was possible that the future of the XV Legislature would depend on those results. The proclamation of the results by the Central Electoral Board sparked more than one debate and led to the subsequent appeal to the Supreme Court and to the Constitutional Court.

Summary: I. INTRODUCTION AND FRAME OF THE STUDY II. VOTING REGULATION THE REGULATION IN THE CONSTITUTION AND THE LOREG. 1. The reform of art. 75 LOREG in 1995. 2. The reform of art. 75 LOREG in 2011. 3. The last reform of art. 75 LOREG in 2022. III. DOES THE VOTE OF SPANIARDS RESIDING ABROAD HAVE THE ABILITY TO CHANGE SEATS? 1. About the right to review the unclaimed null votes. 2. On the ability to influence the final result: Political motivation. 3. On the judgment of probability to influence the result. 4. On the lay role of the auditors, representatives and members of the polling stations. V. FINAL CONCLUDING REMARK ON THE OBJECTIVE OF APPEALING THE NULL VOTE: OBTAIN A RULING FROM THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT.